Model parameter estimation and residual life prediction for a partially observable failing system

We consider a partially observable degrading system subject to condition monitoring and random failure. The system's condition is categorized into one of three states: a healthy state, a warning state, and a failure state. Only the failure state is observable. While the system is operational, vector data that is stochastically related to the system state is obtained through condition monitoring at regular sampling epochs. The state process evolution follows a hidden semi‐Markov model (HSMM) and Erlang distribution is used for modeling the system's sojourn time in each of its operational states. The Expectation‐maximization (EM) algorithm is applied to estimate the state and observation parameters of the HSMM. Explicit formulas for several important quantities for the system residual life estimation such as the conditional reliability function and the mean residual life are derived in terms of the posterior probability that the system is in the warning state. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the applicability of the estimation procedure and failure prediction method. A comparison results with hidden Markov modeling are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 190–205, 2015     

正交频分复用/偏移正交振幅调制半盲信道估计

非合作通信背景下,针对传统干扰近似法(IAM)进行正交频分复用(OFDM)/偏移正交振幅调制(OQAM)系统信道估计需要导频符号值作为先验信息的问题,提出一种基于OQAM符号特征的IAM(OCBIAM)估计算法。该算法利用IAM导频结构和OQAM实符号的有限集特征,将信道衰落系数幅度和相位分开估计,在仅获得导频位置而未知导频符号值的条件下实现了OFDM/OQAM系统半盲信道估计。并且证明了OCB-IAM算法由于利用接收符号的二阶统计量将高斯白噪声变为非随机的单音干扰,从而在中低信噪比条件下具有优于IAM算法的估计性能。仿真实验验证了理论推导的正确性和OCB-IAM算法的可靠性。     

圆周SAR与线性SAR成像特性分析与对比

圆周合成孔径雷达因其独特优势已经成为雷达领域的研究热点。分析圆周合成孔径雷达与线性合成孔径雷达在成像区域大小、点散布函数特性、回波频谱特点、三维成像能力等方面的差异,凸显了圆周合成孔径雷达的成像特点。发现单航过圆周合成孔径雷达频域成像处理的难点在于其回波频谱的空变性。为提高频域成像处理的效率,分析了平面圆周合成孔径雷达与多航过圆周合成孔径雷达成像模式,并指出这两种模式易于在频域开展一致化处理。仿真试验证明了分析内容的正确性。     

基于改进平方根UKF双向滤波的单站无源定位算法

针对单站无源定位可观测性弱、观测噪声大而导致的定位精度低、稳定性差和收敛速度慢等问题,在结合平方根无迹卡尔曼滤波(Square-Root Unscented Kalman Filter,SRUKF)以及后向平滑思想的基础上,提出了一种改进SRUKF的双向滤波算法。该算法采用Q-R分解的形式,使用误差协方差的平方根代替协方差参与递推运算,提高了算法的稳定性与运算效率。同时,该算法对状态向量进行扩维,将过程噪声与观测噪声通过非线性系统传播,降低了噪声对滤波精度的影响,并利用当前时刻滤波结果通过Rauch-Tung-Striebel(RTS)后向平滑得到再次前向滤波更高精度的起始值,提高了算法的定位精度与收敛速度。仿真结果表明,新算法在保证实时性的基础上改善了单站无源定位的性能。     

基于多点空间直线拟合的调炮精度检测方法

针对火炮身管上标记两个点检测调炮精度受制于单个空间点坐标测量精度的问题,提出通过增加身管上标记点的冗余数量来提高调炮精度的检测方法。应用最小二乘原理对多个空间点进行直线拟合,并采用Monte Carlo方法对身管指向的测量精度进行分析。结果表明:标记4个点、5个点、6个点和7个点与标记2个点(传统方法)相比,其身管指向的测量精度分别提高了约6%、18%、19%和21%。该方法适用于对调炮精度检测要求较高的场合,综合考虑工作效率和测量精度这两个因素,推荐标记5个点测量身管指向。     

Some aging properties of parallel and series systems with a random number of components

In this article, we study aging properties of parallel and series systems with a random number of components. We show that the decreasing likelihood ratio property is closed under the formation of random minima. We also show, by counterexamples, that other aging properties are not closed under the formation of random minima or maxima. Some mistakes in the literature are corrected. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 238–243, 2014     

A general approach to the shape of failure rate and MRL functions

Failure rate and mean residual life are two important characteristics for studying reliability of products. In literature, some work studied the shape of failure rate function based on the knowledge of the associated probability density function; some other work investigated the shape of mean residual life function based on the shape of the associated failure rate function separately for continuous case and discrete case. In this article, a general approach is developed which can be applied to the aforementioned studies. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

Higher‐order Markov chain models for categorical data sequences*

In this paper we study higher‐order Markov chain models for analyzing categorical data sequences. We propose an efficient estimation method for the model parameters. Data sequences such as DNA and sales demand are used to illustrate the predicting power of our proposed models. In particular, we apply the developed higher‐order Markov chain model to the server logs data. The objective here is to model the users' behavior in accessing information and to predict their behavior in the future. Our tests are based on a realistic web log and our model shows an improvement in prediction. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

基于增强型MAD单特征量地磁匹配导航算法

为了提高基于MAD(mean absolute differences,平均绝对差)算法的单特征量地磁匹配导航系统的定位精度,研究分析了影响MAD算法的地磁匹配定位精度的主要因素,引入RANSAC(random sample consensus,随机抽样一致)鲁棒算法与粗精匹配结合的分层搜索策略来提高匹配精度及缩短匹配时间.仿真试验结果表明,该算法能够在一定程度上提高单特征量的地磁匹配的精度与稳定性,并大大缩短匹配时间.